WESTFIELD, Ind. — Running back Jonathan Taylor’s trade request is simple.
The idea of the Colts following through and trading Taylor, however, is far more complicated.
Taylor, who is in the final year of his rookie contract, wants a new deal, and there’s been a clear divide in the relationship between the 24-year-old and Colts owner Jim Irsay. So Taylor requested a trade last week hoping for a fresh start and, ideally, more money than the $4.3 million base salary he’s due in 2023.
Meanwhile, the Colts’ preferred scenario remains keeping Taylor in town, according to a league source. The 2020 second-round pick still hasn’t hit the prime of his career, and they feel strongly he still has the potential to be one of the NFL’s premier backs for the foreseeable future. The contract discussions, as they’ve been with so many running backs around the league of late, are tricky, though.
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Beyond that, there’s a feeling around the NFL that too many factors are working against a potential trade. Eight high-ranking decision makers polled by The Athletic were skeptical a team would be willing to pay both the draft compensation to complete a trade along with the contract to keep Taylor on the roster for several years.
“Too pricy on both fronts,” a general manager said, echoing the consensus opinion of all seven team decision-makers.
OK, but what about the idea of a one-year rental? Maybe there’s a team in need of a running back badly enough that it’ll consummate a trade without a long-term deal in place, either because it’s optimistic it could strike an agreement after the season or keep Taylor under the franchise tag.
“You wouldn’t give a high pick without a contract in place,” another general manager said.
Two more executives noted, if a team needed a back, it could simply sign a free agent like Dalvin Cook or Ezekiel Elliott. Both would be more affordable than Taylor.
Plus, the franchise tag is slightly more of a risk. Running back Josh Jacobs still hasn’t signed his $10.1 million tender with the Raiders, and it’s unclear when he’ll report without a long-term deal. Saquon Barkley was in a similar spot with the Giants but agreed to a one-year contract with the chance to earn an extra $900,000 in incentives. If Jacobs can use his leverage to yield a long-term contract, there’s perhaps a slight chance it could change the way running backs navigate the franchise tag in future years.
Another key financial factor: Five running backs have contracts worth an average annual value in excess of the $10.1 million franchise tag. Four of them — Christian McCaffrey (2020), Alvin Kamara (2020), Derrick Henry (2020) and Nick Chubb (2021) — signed their deals years ago. The fifth, Aaron Jones, took a $5 million pay cut this year and restructured to a two-year, $23 million pact.
While quarterback contracts continuously one-up each other in historical fashion, running back contracts have gone in the opposite direction. Even more staggering, the highest average annual value after the $10.1 million franchise tag: James Conner at $7 million. That’s a steep decline unique to that position.
Right, wrong or indifferent, that’s the market Taylor is facing. And if any of those higher-paid backs become cap casualties next offseason, the market could depress even more considerably.
That’s also how other teams are viewing Taylor’s situation. First, they’d have to be willing to give up either a first-rounder or something comparable to the 49ers’ package for McCaffrey — second-, third-, fourth- and fifth-round picks to the Panthers. Then, they’d have to meet Taylor’s financial desires in a market when the numbers are moving backward.
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Keep in mind, too, the 2024 free-agent class is scheduled to be loaded with talent, and teams are aware as they assess their future at the position. Jacobs and Barkley could hit the open market and are slated to be joined by Henry, Austin Ekeler, Tony Pollard, D’Andre Swift, J.K. Dobbins, Damien Harris and AJ Dillon, among others.
Teams will surely call the Colts about Taylor. That’s just a practical matter of business when a player of Taylor’s talent could be available. But the Colts’ preference, as of now, is to try to work toward a resolution that would keep him in town. If things sour to a point where a trade becomes the only option — and, it seems in Taylor’s mind, they may already be there — the Colts will have to readjust.
While the relationship between Taylor and the Colts is undoubtedly frayed, it has at least been deemed as an extreme long shot the team would place him on the non-football injury list, according to a league source. Such a decision would likely bring the relationship to the point of no return.
For now, the Colts hope it can be salvaged. Not only is Taylor a highly regarded player, but a confluence of factors would make this trade a challenging one to execute.
Richardson on the rise
Another reason to want Taylor in town: He’d be an immense help for rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson.
The No. 4 pick in the draft had a strong showing in his first padded practice Tuesday, completing several longer throws down the field and on time as he worked with the starting offense. This was a day after missing practice while recovering from a nasal septum procedure to alleviate pressure that had built up over time.
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“He had a good day,” Colts head coach Shane Steichen told The Athletic after practice. “He’s done a really nice job. He’s getting in and out of the huddle, spitting out the calls, and we’ll see where it goes.
“It’s still early, but he can throw the deep ball. He’s got a hell of an arm, and he’s placing it in good spots right now. We’ve got to continue that trend.”
Richardson is competing with Gardner Minshew for the starting job. While the Colts haven’t been in a rush to make that decision, the early returns on Richardson have been very encouraging.
It’ll be Richardson’s job at some point, of course. For it to happen as early as Week 1 against the Jaguars, he’ll need to show command of the offense, play with pace and limit his mistakes.
There seems to be optimism that can happen quickly enough.
“Just consistency, improvement every single day,” Steichen said. “I just want to see growth from him. He’s very, very talented, as we know. It’s just taking those steps every single day, being around his teammates, getting more comfortable with everything. When that decision needs to be made, it’ll be made.”
Richardson has already impressed everyone in the building with his leadership and personality, and that always goes a long way for any rookie. He’s also got a solid grasp of the offense, but there will be key tests when the speed and intensity increase during joint practices and preseason games.
He did miss some throws Tuesday, but Richardson has worked diligently to improve his accuracy, and the Colts believe he can be a pure passer along with the clear run-pass option elements he brings to the table.
Steichen, who has blended his past offenses to fit quarterbacks Justin Herbert with the Chargers and Jalen Hurts with the Eagles, has long since had a plan in place to maximize Richardson’s potential.
“Everyone is different,” Steichen said. “You’ve got to play to the strengths of your quarterback. That’s how you’ve got to build the system. We had Jalen last year. Anthony has some similar stuff that he can do. Justin Herbert was a little different, a dropback (quarterback), but he can run around and make plays as well with a little mobility there. Just play to the strength of your quarterback, what he does well and try to put him in position to succeed. It’s our job as coaches to do that.”
If Richardson doesn’t win the job right away, there’s also the possibility of utilizing him in different ways throughout the game to give opponents unique challenges.
“Everything is on the table right now,” Steichen said. “We’re going to see how it goes through camp, and we’ll make a decision.”
So far, Richardson is in good position.
“He’s great,” Steichen said. “He’s always got a smile on his face. He’s always upbeat, and the players feed off that. He’s been awesome to be around.
“Any young quarterback, when you come into this league, you know you’ve got to have good leadership qualities. The players have to see that. They have to see the work ethic. You’ve got to come to work and grind every single day, and that’s what he’s been doing. We’ve got to be consistent, and he’s got to be consistent with that. That’s one of the big keys to success — consistency and work. The secret to success is work. If he continues to work hard, he’s got a bright future.”
(Photo: Julio Aguilar / Getty Images)
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