Which teams added the most at the MLB trade deadline — by the numbers

Even in a trade deadline that was more dud than daring, there’s intrigue. You have your All-Ins (the Texas Rangers probably did the best here, getting two starters, one of which will stick around, and the biggest stuff reliever on the market). You have your All-Outs (the New York Mets probably did the best here, purchasing two of the top four prospects on the market by paying down the contracts of the pitchers they were selling). You have your Cautious Contenders (the Los Angeles Dodgers probably did the best here, patching some holes and adding some pieces without giving up much).

Judging a “winner” can be a subjective experience, and we’ve covered that. Now that the dust has settled, though, we can try a numbers-based approach to see who did the best at this year’s deadline.

One way of looking at it is just production traded for minus production traded away. Our friends at Down on the Farm have done that, using Steamer projections and a handy chart.

Here is a look at the rest of 2023 season projected WAR (Steamer) acquired at the trade deadline. A clear look at the buyers and sellers this year ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/fdJA07xHi7

— Down on the Farm (@downonthefarm12) August 2, 2023

Not surprising to see the Rangers at the top and the Mets at the bottom. This chart does a great job of showing the buyers and sellers.

But there’s a little more nuance we can add. Each of these teams had incumbents at their positions, each team had a depth chart. They moved the new players onto those depth charts and traded away prospects that weren’t on those depth charts. In other words, Jordan Montgomery doesn’t just enter the rotation in Texas, he replaces Dane Dunning. So his acquisition really represents whatever the upgrade in production is between Montgomery and Dunning.

GO DEEPER

MLB trade grades: Rangers add another starter in Jordan Montgomery as Cardinals continue selling

The way you really capture all of this is depth charts. These, over at FanGraphs, try to look at rosters and budget playing time according to platoons, injury and the like. When a new pitcher enters the rotation, he knocks the rest down in a chain. So it’s even a little more nuanced: Dunning gets pushed down and gets innings that used to go to Cody Bradford. And so on and so forth.

We took a snapshot of the depth charts ahead of the deadline in order to find weaknesses on contenders, and though we did an OK job figuring those out, we matched exactly zero players to the right teams! Wheeee!

Anyway, we have that snapshot of the depth charts, and we have a post-trade deadline snapshot, so now by comparing the two, we can make this handy table, which shows which teams added the most talent with respect to their existing talent. This is using Wins Above Replacement and the FanGraphs’ depth chart projections.

Now we get some interesting results! Everyone’s negative, of course, because it’s more than a week later in the season. But by adding Justin Verlander and taking away either Ronel Blanco or Brandon Bielak, the Houston Astros might have made the single most impactful move of the deadline by the numbers. That’s how good Verlander’s projections are.

GO DEEPER

Mets trade Justin Verlander to Astros: Source

Let’s also give some love to the Milwaukee Brewers. Their moves at the deadline were the most impactful at first base and designated hitter, tied for the most impactful in the corner outfield, and in the top 10 in the bullpen. That’s not bad, especially when you realize the names on those moves were Mark Canha, Carlos Santana and Andrew Chafin. They really took their depth charts and went and got cheap players that improved them at their worst spots.

But the third entry on this list tells us that maybe this isn’t exactly the best way to measure the deadline. Somehow the Oakland A’s added by subtraction.

Let’s re-run that type of analysis, but instead of comparing raw WAR before and after the deadline, let’s compare team rank.

The Chicago Cubs? They did buy — adding Jeimer Candelario and Jose Cuas — but it’s surprising to see them land at the top. Part of what happened here is that teams that were projected better than the Cubs sold. In terms of rest-of-season projections, the Mets, Cleveland Guardians, and St. Louis Cardinals were ahead of the Cubs but sold present value off of their rosters and slipped behind them after the deadline. In a similar way, the Boston Red Sox, by not doing anything, could spin it as an improvement. At least they didn’t sell!

One thing that might surprise you is that a few buyers did not affect their ranks very much. The Los Angeles Angels and Baltimore Orioles did some work, but they each moved up one rank (to 15th and 16th, respectively) for their work. Of course, you can quibble with the rest-of-season projections here saying that the Orioles are actually more of a .500 team going forward, but that’s something that shows up all across FanGraphs, mostly because they project the Orioles rotation to be 21st in the big leagues going forward, and that’s even with Jack Flaherty. Those same projections have the Angels at 22nd in the bullpen, even with their additions. Other projections may have it differently. Here’s a Google sheet that shows the depth charts on July 25, Aug. 2, and the differences between them.

Every method has some subjectivity — just the choosing of the method (and the projection system) itself inserts human error. But we’ve tried three methods here in order to coax some candidates out of the numbers, and it’s clear that a few teams have drifted to the top. The Rangers traded for the most talent overall. The Astros made perhaps the single most impactful move. The Brewers did the best job of patching up a flawed depth chart. The Cubs did the best at treading water.

If you need a single winner, it has to be the Rangers, who show up in the top five no matter how you attack the question. But that doesn’t mean the other teams don’t deserve a little love for what they did this week.

(Photo of Rangers GM Chris Young: Sam Hodde / Getty Images)