Justin Verlander returns to the Astros, this time from the Mets in exchange for two prospects, both of whom received seven-figure signing bonuses in last year’s draft. He’ll clearly help an Astros team that has had some uncharacteristic rotation problems, even in the midst of his worst year in almost a decade.
Verlander isn’t having a typical Verlander season. He’s already walked more guys in 2023 than he did all of last year in twice the innings, and his strikeout rate is his lowest since 2014. He also hasn’t been hit this hard in any year since Statcast data first became available, with career worsts in Hard-Hit rate and average/max exit velocity. His four-seam velocity is down again to 94.3 mph, and he’s lost horizontal movement on the pitch in both years since returning from 2020 Tommy John surgery. His slider remains a plus pitch and his curveball is at least a 55, with all three pitches moving in different directions to help keep hitters from sitting on any one pitch type. He did miss April due to injury but hasn’t missed a start since his return, and he handled a full season of work last year, with 32 starts total between the regular season and playoffs. The Astros have lost Luis García to Tommy John surgery already, and José Urquidy has missed most of the season with a sore shoulder, although he’s set to return now. Cristian Javier is in the midst of his worst-ever season, so even just league-average performance from Verlander would help the team, and I think he’ll be better than that.
Drew Gilbert (Andrew Ferguson / Tennessee Athletics)
Drew Gilbert was the Astros’ first-round pick in 2022 out of Tennessee, where he hit for average and played excellent defense in center, but whose power ceiling was limited. He tore up hitter-friendly Asheville to start the year, earned a promotion after just 21 games, and has hit .241/.342/.371 in Double A. He was a two-way player in high school with a fastball in the upper 80s, so he’s got the arm for center, and he’s a plus defender there as well, taking some pressure off the bat. I don’t foresee more than 10-15 homer power here, and that’s with some projection on his 5-foot-9 frame, while he also has some platoon split already as a left-handed batter that at least bears watching. I think he’s a regular, not a star, with a solid floor as a fourth outfielder/platoon guy.
Ryan Clifford was their 11th-round pick last year but got an over-slot bonus of just over $1.25 million, more than the Astros gave their second-rounder. He’s all power and patience, a corner bat who made a lot of hard contact in high school despite a no-strike approach. He’s posted high walk rates for his age at two stops already in the minors, tailing off after the Astros bumped him up to High-A Asheville in early May. He’s scuffled on the road there, with a 34 percent strikeout rate away from home, and hasn’t hit lefties at all this year on the rare cases he’s faced them. He’s more of an upside play and could be a high-walks, 30-homers guy in right field or at first base, with a higher failure risk than Gilbert offers.
Verlander is under contract for next year for $43.3 million, with an option for 2025 at $35 million that vests if he throws 140 innings next season, with the Mets reportedly paying $35 million of the guaranteed money and half of that vesting option year’s salary. The Astros are now on the hook for a decent chunk of change for a pitcher who’s already showing signs of decline. He’s likely to be more than worth it for the rest of this season, but I would bet that at some point before 2025, he’ll slip to the point where he’s no longer producing at the level of his salary. This seems like a big push for 2023, with the possibility of paying Verlander more than his output is worth in 2024-25 just the cost of doing business.
For the Mets, this is a pretty solid return that also clears some payroll for them to try to add again this winter, and it’s a better overall trade than the Max Scherzer deal, considering the players and the money involved. And perhaps sending Scherzer to Houston’s main rival in the AL West helped push the Astros to make the trade and include a second prospect. The Mets will at the very least have to add some starting pitching just to be competitive next year, even if, as Scherzer himself told The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, the team intends to try to push more for 2025-26.
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(Top photo: Troy Taormina / USA Today)
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