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As always, any referenced dynasty Trade Analyzer, player ranking or ADP data comes from DynastyLeagueFootball (DLF), the oldest and largest dynasty-centric site on the planet.
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Let’s get to it!
Is this the time to move Stefon Diggs? It feels like a year early, but better that than a year late. — Luke T.
Unless you have a very competitive team, I’d be looking to move him. It is a year or two early but as we’ve seen with receivers such as DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans, Cooper Kupp and even Davante Adams, they will start to lose value relatively quickly. At the same time, that is a good time to add a veteran if you need a production bump. The top age-30 receivers do retain value relatively well but if you want max value, now is the time.
Justyn Ross: Are we here for the party, or will the party be over before it even starts? — Joseph K.
I’m most certainly here for the party and have rostered him in nearly every league. The only thing stopping me would be shallow roster settings or another manager beating me to it (usually readers of my work).
Is Brian Robinson the long-term option in Washington? — Cory L.
I’ll answer based on what I’m doing with him. I’ve been drafting him as long as I can get him at value. Looking at the DLF’s Trade Analyzer, he’s showing a 2024 mid-second round rookie value and a quick reference of the DLF Trade Finder is showing multiple trades at that same value. Robinson missed four games in 2022 due to a gunshot injury to his leg and, in his own words, never felt right. He’s back, working hard and looks to have the early down role to himself. Antonio Gibson will still factor, but more as a third-down option. Given Robinson’s value, he’s an easy acquisition at that cost.
What is the trade value for Jonathan Taylor in a 12-team dynasty SuperFlex? Looking to target a receiver and wondering who to go after. — Carter A.
Taylor is still going to carry major value and you should be able to get a very good young receiver in a swap. If, however, both sides play hardball and Taylor elects to sit out, that’s obviously a worst-case scenario for his value. Taylor’s DLF Trade Analyzer value shows current value equal to receivers such as Amon-Ra St. Brown, Chris Olave, Tee Higgins, Tyreek Hill, DeVonta Smith, and slightly greater value than Drake London, DK Metcalf and Cooper Kupp. As you can imagine, until his situation is settled, his value will be diminished slightly.
I’m in a 12-team dynasty league that has a three-round offline rookie/veteran draft. I own the first, fourth, eighth, 12th,13th, 22nd, 23rd, and 24th picks. The only position I am set at is QB — Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence. My RBs are James Cook, Rhamondre Stevenson, Khalil Herbert and Breece Hall. I have Adam Thielen, Allen Lazard, Jalen Tolbert, Rondale Moore and Van Jefferson as WR, and Darren Waller as TE. Obviously, I take Bijan Robinson with the first pick. My question is, which WR/RB/TE do I scoop up with my other three first round picks and No. 14 overall? I like Quentin Johnston and Dalton Kincaid early. Or would you go another route? — Robert P.
First, don’t discount floating those picks before you’re on the clock, and when you are on the clock. It’s always good to de-risk a little if you can get a known productive player for a rookie selection, as long as the value and fit is right. Pick 1.04 is a receiver as Gibbs will go earlier. You hope Jaxon Smith-Njigba falls, but he likely won’t unless this is SuperFlex. Your 1.08 is perfect trade bait unless you want TE Dalton Kincaid. Personally, I trade that pick and select one of the TEs at 12 or 13 and then Devon Achane or Kendre Miller if either fall. If you keep 1.08, I select Zay Flowers if he falls or Kincaid. Roschon Johnson has potential with one of those later picks as well. But definitely float those picks for trade, you never know what will be offered. You could also look at Anthony Richardson at 1.08 as a luxury pick for future trade value.
In a new dynasty Superflex this year I ended up with a QB room of Justin Herbert, Bryce Young, Jordan Love and Ryan Tannehill… this feels like a bit of a risky selection of QBs. Should I try and trade to improve now, or see how the season pans out? I’m not expecting to compete for the title this year. — Stuart B.
Herbert is a great anchor and then you just need Young or Love to become a front-line starter for you, leaving the other falling into a QB3 developmental role, most likely Love. Tannehill qualifies for that emergency vet starter. He’s the only one I’d float in trade. With the DeAndre Hopkins acquisition, some are talking Tannehill up for 2023 and you may be able to scare up some draft pick value. I would sit on my hands if I don’t get a good offer. You only need one of the two young QBs to develop behind Herbert.
Is it time to move Nick Chubb for younger pieces and/or draft capital? With the RB market the way it is, and Deshaun Watson potentially airing it out more or taking goal line carries away from Chubb, I’m worried his value will never be as high as it is now. Ideally ,I’d like to get a younger back like Rhamondre Stevenson or James Cook out of a trade but not sure if I’m just paranoid and should hold Chubb another year. I’m in win-now mode but could use a strong TE or wide receiver. My other backs are CMC, Isiah Pacheco, Kendre Miller, Tyjae Spears, Ezekiel Elliott. — Logan D.
You have a decision to make as to your “win now” mode. I love Chubb this year! If this is my squad and I’m very competitive in 2023, I keep him and… win now. Too many dynasty managers look to bail on players for younger players or picks — also called “risk” — when they have good production to compete for a championship. Unless I am rebuilding, I’m keeping my highly productive players and going for the ring. I don’t care if they retire off my roster or lose value. If you hold another year, he will lose value, no question. But then you hold him and try to win it all again.
How big of a gap is there from the Ja’Marr Chase/Justin Jefferson tier to the CeeDee Lamb/A.J. Brown tier? What would you expect a Jefferson for Brown trade to look like? How much would need to be added on the Brown side? — Hunter L.
That is truly going to depend on the managers rostering both players. To me, there’s not a huge difference in value between those top two tiers. In checking the DLF Trade Analyzer, I find about 100 points of difference, which equates to a mid-to-high second round selection. I agree with that value differential. For the coach rostering Jefferson, I doubt this will be enough to trade him away. So, this is a case where a coach desiring Jefferson or Chase will likely need to overpay. An additional first round rookie selection, probably late, isn’t out of the question. But it’s going to be very manager-to-manager dependent.
How do you value Jonathan Taylor even after this debacle? — Grayson K.
Strangely enough, I don’t have any shares of Taylor in any of my 14 dynasty leagues. If I was looking to acquire him, I would be pouncing now, looking to get a discount on his current value due to the uncertainty. If I roster Taylor, I’m sitting on my hands and not trading him away at a discounted value. He has very little leverage unless he wants to fight the Colts legally. In all likelihood, if he sits, he won’t accrue a league year and will be in the same boat next year. His best hope is via trade or playing to the best of his ability to prove he’s worthy of a top contract in 2024 as a free agent.
What’s your startup strategy in TE Premium leagues? It’s been said that Travis Kelce is in a tier of his own, but would that change in this format? — Steve J.
I do believe Kelce is in a league of his own, but I also have T.J. Hockenson and Mark Andrews very close. In fact, in a new draft, I’d rather draft Hockenson. But, in TEP leagues, I always fade the TE position and allow other coaches to fall over themselves to draft them. Based on my long-term research, there’s just not enough advantage in drafting a tight end outside of the top three or four players, and I’m not willing to commit a high draft choice on the position — that means I have to wait as those top names go off the board early.
What is Travis Kelce’s trade value in SuperFlex dynasty given his otherworldly production and age? — Josh H.
This depends on who you ask. For me, he’s valued as a pure first-round rookie selection, somewhere mid-to-late. He’s going to play until the wheels fall off and he’s shown no signs of slowing down. That said, Father Time has one hand on Kelce’s shoulder, and I’d be selling this year, right now in this time frame. He’s an impact player and a good addition for a competing team. If I’m competing, I’m holding him until he hangs them up.
Dynasty single QB, PPR league: Are we buying the Kenny McIntosh and Zamir White hype? — Jamie M.
Well, I’d hesitate to call it “hype” with McIntosh, and while White is trending well, I have a hard time overpaying. Without question I believe White is a player to roster for the future. I don’t think 2023 is his year and he’s only a two-down back in all likelihood. As for McIntosh, no, I’m not in on the bidding there.
Is there any hope Courtland Sutton returns to a WR2? Could he be a Michael Thomas in this offense? Or is he just a roster clogger at this point? — Ryan C.
I have a light on for Sutton but I have never been high on him and recommended dynasty coaches stay away from him when he came out of SMU. I didn’t see enough transcendent ability to be a consistent fantasy scorer. I would draft him well below his ADP but I’m always willing to side with mid-career receivers as value selections. I have never believed he has Michael Thomas upside and would much rather roster Jerry Jeudy. I do not see him as a roster clogger nor does he have enough intrinsic value to trade away. I’ll risk holding and taking any production he gives.
Where are we at in terms of floor/ceiling for Jalin Hyatt and Josh Downs? — Cody M.
You’re asking the wrong analyst if you’re looking for upside calls on either. I’m perhaps the lowest analyst on Hyatt and have been since he started gaining traction on social media. And while I’m higher on Downs, I have zero shares because I’m not willing to draft him at his current value. I’m a round back in value on both players. I’ll pass and throw my money down on others. I expect floors for both, but for Downs to have the higher ceiling.
Kadarious Toney upside: long-term career WR2 in KC or boom/bust short-term flex play? — James G.
I can’t lie, I was very excited to see him in KC and thought he needed a trade to boost his career. I would have overdrafted him in a start-up draft this year before yet another injury sidelined him. It’s now a critical situation and if he can’t stay healthy this year, he could be dead roster weight. Has an immensely high ceiling in the mold of Tyreek Hill but not if he can’t stay off the trainer’s table. He’s boom or bust.
Which late round rookie running backs will probably have the most impact in the next years? — Christian V.
I really like Tyjae Spears and I think Roschon Johnson is a player, too. Both are high second round picks in rookie drafts. Going a bit deeper, DeWayne McBride has a lot of early-down ability. I have been pounding the table on Deneric Prince as a late-round add as the NFL draft concluded, and have him in 80% of my leagues. Chase Brown is also a sneaky good addition for 2024 and beyond.
No. — Flint D.
I can’t say I disagree.
Marquise Brown, James Conner, Rondale Moore and Trey McBride all seem like bargains in drafts right now, despite uncertainty around Kyler Murray’s return and the offensive environment in general. Talk me out of it. — Luke T.
I’m a bit of a trashman in start-up drafts — I draft players others leave on the side of the road. I’ll rank them in order of interest: Brown, McBride, Conner and Moore. I’m not a big Rondale Moore fan but 2023 is shaping up well for him. That said, I’d only add the others on drops of 1.5 – 2 rounds below their ADP. It really looks like Arizona will be ushering in a new quarterback in 2024 and that’s a weight on receivers.
Jonathan Taylor: What’s the move? Risk/Reward? — Breton D.
In two of three scenarios, he’s going to play this year, either for the Colts or another team via trade. In the last scenario, he attempts to sit out and hurts his 2023, and maybe 2024, value. I’m acquiring Taylor if I need a running back and I can get him at a bit of a discount. I doubt that occurs as his upside is too great and managers will likely hold. He’s young, elite and I think he plays. I’d be buying if I wasn’t prioritizing receivers instead.
Non-SuperFlex, half-PPR: Would Nick Chubb and 1.06 be an overpay for 1.01 (Bijan Robinson) if I also have the 1.02 and could just grab Jahmyr Gibbs and, hopefully, Anthony Richardson at 1.06? Bijan seems like such a special talent a la CMC and Saquon Barkley that it feels worth it to take a swing for him. My team will likely be at the bottom again next year so I’m also not as worried about missing out on a receiver this year because of Marvin Harrison Jr. — Anonymous
Couple things here. There’s a good chance you get Richardson at 1.06. I’ve been drafting him at 1.07 successfully often and the highest I’ve seen him go was 1.05. That trade would look like Chubb and Zay Flowers for Bijan and that is a value I can get behind. If Quentin Johnston falls to 1.06, that’s still a deal I’d do. Robinson is a transcendent talent and while I don’t think he’ll run away with the carries given Tyler Allgeier’s presence and rookie success, he’s going to see a lot of touches. That’s a deal I do. Robinson’s currently value is 2.5 – 3 first-round assets and that deal is closer to two.
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