RENTON, Wash. — In the last year, Geno Smith has drastically altered his perception across the league.
The most intriguing method of gauging that perception is the annual Quarterback Tiers ranking, produced by The Athletic’s Mike Sando. Each offseason, Sando solicits commentary from 50 league evaluators. This year, he spoke with eight general managers, 10 head coaches, 15 coordinators, 10 executives, four QB coaches and three insiders either working in coaching or analytics. They were asked to place 30 veteran QBs (rookies are excluded) into five tiers.
Last year, Smith was the lone Tier 5 quarterback, reserved for passers who are viewed as backups. In essence, the league considered Smith to be the worst starter in the league. Drew Lock, his competition in the Seahawks’ QB battle at this time last year, was one spot higher, in the bottom of Tier 4.
In the 2023 Quarterback Tiers published Monday, Smith ranks 20th and lands in Tier 3. He had the biggest year-over-year jump in average tier vote from 2022 and the third-largest single-year leap in the 10 years Sando has produced these rankings. Tier 3 is made up of quarterbacks ranked 13 through 23. The Tier 3 quarterbacks ranked ahead of Smith are, in order: Kyler Murray, Derek Carr, Jared Goff, Russell Wilson, Tua Tagovailoa, Jimmy Garoppolo and Daniel Jones.
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Last season was Smith’s first as a full-time starter since 2014, and it ended up being the best year of his career. He posted career highs in yards (4,282), touchdowns (30) and completion percentage (69.8), the latter leading the league. Smith won AP Comeback Player of the Year in addition to being named Comeback Player of the Year and Most Improved Player by the Pro Football Writers of America. Smith also became the eighth QB (and first since Rich Gannon in 1999) to earn his first Pro Bowl selection in Year 10 or later.
One general manager’s assessment in Sando’s quarterback rankings adequately summarizes how Smith is now perceived across the league: “He has solidified as a legitimate starter that you can win some games with.”
This is the latest example of Smith improving his standing among his peers. In the NFL Top 100, voted on annually by players, Smith checked in at No. 77 (cornerback Riq Woolen was No. 76). He is ahead of Tagovailoa (No. 82), Justin Fields (No. 86) and Trevor Lawrence (No. 96) and only five spots below Lamar Jackson (No. 72). Prior this year, Smith had never made the list.
“It’s a long career for Geno just to get here and get the respect that he deserves,” Patriots edge rusher Matthew Judon told NFL Network. “For him to stay committed to his craft, that’s an unbelievable story.”
Smith was asked about the list after the second day of training camp.
“It was a blessing to be recognized by my peers,” Smith said. “It’s my first time, but you all know me: I’m not satisfied with that, but it’s a blessing just to be in there.”
ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler is in his fourth year of surveying league executives, coaches, scouts and players to generate an offseason ranking of the top players at each position. Smith didn’t make the top 10, but he did receive votes for the first time. Smith had a rating of 60 on “Madden NFL 23” this time last year, and he publicly lamented that number, pointing out that he was ranked lower than some rookies who hadn’t played an NFL game. Smith has a rating of 81 in “Madden NFL 24,” 12th-highest among quarterbacks.
The morning the ESPN list was revealed, Smith tweeted a meme of Michael Jordan laughing at a tablet during the filming of “The Last Dance” documentary. That meme is often used to symbolize feeling slighted.
Smith said, “I’m not big on rankings,” when asked about those lists at camp.
“If I’m not in the top 10 or top five, I just have to go out there and prove it,” Smith said. “I look forward to the games where I can just perform.”
Although Smith has proven to be a competent quarterback, there’s clearly still room for further ascension. One good season wasn’t enough to vault Smith over guys like Carr and Garoppolo, whose teams moved on from them in the offseason. Or Wilson, who quarterbacked the worst scoring offense in the league. Or Jones, who threw half as many touchdowns as Smith and led an offense built around the skills of the team’s star running back. Smith’s own team structured his contract in a way that gives Seattle potential outs if he doesn’t perform at the same level he did in 2022.
The story of Seattle’s 2022 season was how well Smith played. The story of the 2023 season will be whether he can do it again.
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Players and coaches have said they don’t see much of a difference between the way Smith carries himself now and the way he did one year ago when he was battling with Lock to be the starter. To them, being the unquestioned starter just means taking all the first-team reps and, as receiver DK Metcalf phrased it, having a “bigger voice” as the leader of the offense.
“We’re leaning on him and counting on him to be that voice and that leader at the quarterback position,” said Metcalf, who’s going on his fifth season as Smith’s teammate. “I think he’s going to do 10 times better than last year because he’s got the reins loosened up on him. It’s going to be fun to watch.”
Asked to clarify his remark about loosened reins, Metcalf said: “He’s not worried about being perfect out there. He can go out there and play freely.”
Geno to DK for a TD in 7-on-7.
(🎥: @seahawks) https://t.co/ZMft0UbUHB pic.twitter.com/gAM0aBPgIc
— Dugar, Michael-Shawn (@MikeDugar) August 1, 2023
It will be interesting to see how that freedom takes Smith’s game to the next level. In last year’s preseason, Smith largely played mistake-free football, though he didn’t throw a touchdown pass and averaged just 6.1 yards per attempt (all stats provided by TruMedia unless stated otherwise). Through the first two weeks of the regular season, Smith led the league in completion rate but ranked last in air yards per attempt before coach Pete Carroll lamented the team’s conservative approach and declared they needed to stop holding Smith back. From that point on, Seattle’s offense looked more dynamic.
In March, Smith signed a deal that would pay him like a top-10 quarterback, performance escalators included. Smith felt that sort of payday aligned with his standing in the league. (Recent quarterback deals have pushed Smith’s deal down four spots and out of the top 10 in average annual salary.) The rest of the league might agree, if Smith’s encore lives up to his expectations.
Showing Smith some love after practice on Monday, linebacker Bobby Wagner said he’s impressed by the quarterback’s growth, maturity and the confidence to replace a franchise stalwart like Wilson and immediately play at a high level. As a longtime fixture in the middle of Seattle’s defense, Wagner knows what it’s like to be a leader and command one side of the ball. He sees Smith doing that for Seattle’s offense.
“When he comes out and reads the coverage, whether it’s Cover 2, Cover 3, Cover 4, (he has) the confidence to check into the play he needs to check into, in a way that everybody listens,” Wagner said. “Nobody questions his checks. Nobody questions what he is checking into. They trust him, he has a complete command in the huddle, and I think that’s the confidence.”
Seattle’s top two running backs are on the mend, but assuming they’re available by the start of the regular season, Smith will enter his 11th season with more offensive weaponry than he’s ever had. The Seahawks have the potential to be one of the league’s best offenses. Smith isn’t fond of the word “potential,” though. Whether it’s his own performance or that of the whole offense, he believes there’s nothing more powerful than putting it on tape.
“We gotta go prove it,” Smith said. “I’m not big on just talking. I like to just make things happen.”
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