Some quick hits on smaller trades that involved prospects at this year’s MLB trade deadline:
I wrote Monday that the Marlins were one of the teams that could most use a boost at third base, but figured Jake Burger, who is hitting .214/.279/.527 this year, wouldn’t move the needle for a would-be contender. He does have 25 homers, but they come at a cost of that abysmal OBP, which would be the third-worst among qualifiers if he had eight more plate appearances. He’s a below-average defender at third, although he’d probably be fine at first. With a strikeout rate of 31.6 percent this year, this is probably just what he is as a hitter. The fact that he’s a huge upgrade for the Marlins is more an indictment of how bad Jean Segura has been, with a .277 OBP and below-average defense, but no power. It’s like adding the same guy but with the potential for 10 homers the rest of the way instead of one or two.
Returning to the White Sox, lefty Jake Eder was on my top 100 coming into this year as he returned from Tommy John surgery, and he’s been steadily working his way back, mostly 90-93 mph this year with a plus slider. But that velocity is still down from where it was pre-surgery and he doesn’t have all his arm speed or his feel for his changeup, at least not yet. He’s a potential mid-rotation guy, maybe a No. 2, if he gets all the way back to where he was in 2021. He also missed the first two and a half months of 2023 after breaking his left foot, so it’s possible that’s still impacting his ability to push off the rubber for maximum arm strength.
The Marlins are really going for it.
After acquiring David Robertson and Jake Burger, Miami is adding another big bat in Josh Bell, sources confirm to The Athletic.
The Guardians will release Jean Segura.
More: https://t.co/i6m4dufGs6 pic.twitter.com/82xrY8guCq
— The Athletic MLB (@TheAthleticMLB) August 1, 2023
The Padres shipped their 2018 first-rounder Ryan Weathers off to Miami for first baseman Garrett Cooper and minor-league reliever Sean Reynolds, closing the book on Weathers’ disappointing career in San Diego. Weathers has a 93-95 mph fastball and what should be an above-average changeup, but neither pitch has missed bats in the majors and even a switch this year to a sweeper breaking ball hasn’t given him the third pitch he needs. He’s also just 23 and an excellent athlete who was in the majors far too soon. As reclamation projects go, he’s a good one.
Cooper is a righty-masher and platoon bat who hits lefties and doesn’t do anything else, perhaps serving as a platoon-mate for Jake Cronenworth in San Diego. Reynolds is extremely interesting, a 6-foot-8 right-hander who was a position player but, shocker, struck out way too often. He moved to the mound in 2021 and this year he’s been sitting 94-97 mph, touching 99 mph, with a plus slider and what has to be an extremely uncomfortable look for right-handed hitters. He has a decent changeup, showing no real platoon split this year. He needs to throw more and better strikes, but I will absolutely take my chances with this stuff and the results he’s had in just two and half years as a full-time pitcher.
The Guardians added first base prospect Kyle Manzardo on Monday, and it seemed like he’d take over from Josh Bell in the near future — so Cleveland then dumped Bell and the year-plus on his contract on Miami, taking on Jean Segura’s contract and gaining 2021 first-rounder Kahlil Watson. Bell has massively underperformed this year, but he’s still hitting the ball hard and his expected stats (like xSLG and xwOBA) are much better than his actual ones, so I’m good with the Marlins betting on improved performance in the last two months as they push for a playoff spot. They’ve gotten just a .248/.306/.376 line from their first basemen this year, mostly from the cooked Yuli Gurriel, so Bell should be an instant upgrade.
Watson has been a huge disappointment since the Marlins took him 16th overall in a draft where he seemed to be in consideration for the top 10. He’s a small infielder with a big swing, and as a result he strikes out way more than he should without the power or other production to balance it out. He has cut his strikeout rate from 35.5 percent in Low A last year to 28 percent in High A this year, so if you’re looking for any cause for optimism, look there. He’s a plus runner who has mostly played shortstop and should be able to stay there, but he’s so inconsistent he’ll probably move to second or maybe center. He’s had on-field disciplinary issues as well in his pro career. Cleveland is buying very, very low on him, and it seems like a shrewd move, even if it means taking on the dead money of Segura’s deal.
The Tigers flipped starter Michael Lorenzen to the Phillies for infield prospect Hao-Yu Lee, taking their one-year, $8.5 million investment and converting it into a potential regular at second base. Lorenzen is having his best year in the majors, worth 2 rWAR already while approaching his single-season high in innings (105.2) with a 3.58 ERA and peripherals that support it. The Phillies have gotten some shocking work from Cristopher Sánchez out of the rotation, so maybe he won’t just end up “the guy the Phillies got for Curtis Mead,” but I don’t know how much more you can bank on him as he has already matched his highest-ever innings total as a professional, while lefty Ranger Suárez has been struggling. Lorenzen just provides all sorts of rotation insurance for the Phillies even though they don’t have an acute need at the moment.
Lee has great feel to hit with a short swing and excellent hand-eye coordination, but he doesn’t have great bat speed and it’s maybe 45 power if you’re being kind. He’s a second baseman so he’s going to have to find a way to impact the ball more to be a regular. The foundation is here for that to happen, at least, as he’s not slight of build and he already makes so much contact that even 12-15 homers a year would do the trick.
And finally, the Padres picked up reliever Scott Barlow from the Royals for their third-round pick from last year, right-hander Henry Williams. Williams has a high-spin fastball and plus changeup, but he missed his whole junior year at Duke after Tommy John surgery and he’s had a history of both injuries and poor command. Barlow’s lost some stuff and stumbled to a 5+ ERA this year, so for the Royals, even getting a project like Williams for him is a win.
(Photo of Jake Burger: Brett Davis / USA Today)
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